🥎 They're Coming For Youth Sports

This is Buying Sandlot — the only newsletter that focuses solely on the business of youth sports.

Let’s get to it.

The Aspen Institute’s initiative put the following data points front and center at its annual summit this week in Boston:

The figures come from the National Survey of Children’s Health, which is federally funded and conducted by the Census Bureau. The data lags, so it’s entirely possible that the current participation rate is already over 60%.

The figures were presented through the lens of Project Play’s consistent thesis of 1) increasing participation to 63% by 2030, and 2) that rising youth sports costs and professionalized club and travel teams are squeezing out low-income families and contracting community-based options.

But a deeper dive into both the federal survey and the organization’s own data paints a more nuanced picture.

🔬 Data Deep Dive:

Let’s start with the participation figure of households under the poverty line in 2024: 36.3%.

That is down 0.3% percentage points from the 2023 survey. But sports participation among that group is still significantly higher than participation in other extracurricular activities:

Sports participation in the cohort has also risen 5% since 2019 while arts and clubs have seen double-digit decreases— indicating that sports is holding up better than alternatives. Whatever's suppressing low-income participation isn't unique to youth sports— and it may not be primarily about cost.

Participation rose (to 45.7%) among households at 100-199% of the federal poverty level. That cohort has also only experienced a 1% percentage point participation drop since 2016-17, according to the federal data. Meanwhile, other clubs and arts are down 8% and 16%, respectively.

Sports doesn't just have the highest floor among structured youth activities— it has the highest participation at every income level. The pattern is consistent: families across income ranges access sports more than alternatives. The wide income gap is evidence that sports is the most income-elastic activity at the top. That doesn’t mean it’s exclusionary at the bottom.

Youth sports is also experiencing participation growth among the lowest income households since 2019 that is 2.9x higher than the highest income households (5% to 2%) — the same year Project Play continually points to when it says costs are up 46%. And it’s worth noting, that cost number isn’t inflation-adjusted. Inflation between 2019 and 2024 was around 22%, so roughly half of the increase in cost comes from general inflation alone, and travel costs at the highest end of the market skew the averages further. The rise in median participation cost, when inflation-adjusted, is almost certainly less shocking.

So two things can be true: Over the long arc, lower-income participation is down significantly and the income gap has widened from the 2016-17 baseline. But since 2019, the bottom bracket has rebounded faster than the top, despite all of the discussed madness in youth sports:

As for club and travel sports, which receive much of the ire in media coverage and now perhaps in proposed legislation: Project Play data contradicts these prevalent narratives too.

Community-based teams account for 53% of participation, according to a 2024 survey of parents, compared to just 15% for elite club teams. Videos like the ones posted here would have you believe community sports no longer exist.

The same survey found that parents say they feel more pressured by school coaches to specialize in one sport than by non-school or club coaches. So the pressure to specialize isn’t a problem that’s unique to club sports. In fact, across all income bands, more parents say they feel “no pressure” from club coaches than school coaches.

What may be happening here is that participation data and general sentiment around the absurdities of the high-end of the youth sports market are being conflated to blame one (travel sports expenses) for the other (lower income participation)— and that may be driving proposed legislation.

Tournament weekends have become mini supply chains: teams register, rosters change, schedules shift, hotels fill, and parents scramble.

Too many events still run things on spreadsheets, portals, and last-minute calls.

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We know one federal youth sports bill -- the Let Kids Play Act -- is imminent. That legislation will reportedly seek to ban private equity from involvement in the industry.

There are also rumblings about at least one other industry-led bill that will be introduced. And Stephen Weyler, who was a guest on our podcast this week -- a senior director at lobbying firm Invariant -- does not expect things to stop there.

"The perception around youth sports is that it's more expensive, it's commercialized and -- at least to some policymakers -- private equity is to blame or perhaps part of the blame," Weyler told Buying Sandlot. "I think the devil will be in the details for what this bill says."

While banning PE from youth sports would be an "uphill battle," Weyler said it is important to realize this is a bipartisan issue. While three Democrats are expected to propose the Let Kids Play Act, there are also Republicans who have expressed concerns about PE's involvement in youth sports and the larger conversation about consolidation and vertical integration in other industries like healthcare.

The popular perception of what youth sports "should" be -- i.e. low-cost, community-based rec leagues over clubs and travel -- also factors in.

"I think the definition section is the key piece here for what these lawmakers are truly going after here," Weyler said. "They talk about banning private equity. What does that mean? Does that mean anyone investing in youth sports? Or are these the really big players that are focused on the quote unquote roll up strategies that they've talked about in these field hearings. Is it the smaller private equity firms? Is there going to be a requirement that these private equity companies are going to have to reinvest in the community?”

Weyler's advice to the industry: "Telling an authentic story about your company and really why you care" to counter the perception that PE and other private businesses are only seeking profits.

"The issues that voters care about are ones that touch their life every single day," he said. "Right, wrong or indifferent, the cost of youth sports is one that touches their life every single day. I can promise you congressional offices are hearing about this. They are hearing about it because the people in their district are seeing the cost of their children's participation in a sport go up. So when you have that very concrete and real connection to an issue around a politically important one, it's one that we will continue to see politicians talk about.

"While this is probably the first real attempt to legislate affordability, it most definitely will not be the last."

The youth hockey company and founder/former CEO Murry Gunty were the subject of a lengthy, wide-ranging report published yesterday following what the newspaper said was a nine-month investigation featuring over 80 interviews.

BBSG — which was previously a Buying Sandlot sponsor — is no stranger to press attention, consumer criticisms and accusations of potentially anti-competitive business practices. But this report was far more comprehensive than past efforts by other outlets.

Gunty defended BBSG in an interview for the report; a crisis communications consultant retained by BBSG was also quoted several times.

BBSG says its participation levels have outpaced national participation rates.

BBSG is now the county’s largest rink owner-operator with 47 venues in 11 states, according to the report. It also owns and operates over 40 clubs that compete in 16 leagues, half of which USA Today said BBSG either owns or controls.

Michigan’s attorney general has reportedly launched an antitrust investigation into the state’s youth hockey industry with BBSG among the subjects.

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Good game.