Tariffs May Cost Youth Sports Families Upwards of $2 Billion Per Year

Tariffs are poised to impact the price of sports equipment in a big way.

A significant portion of youth sports footwear, apparel and equipment is imported from countries facing reciprocal tariffs.

Nike stock alone fell more than 15% this week, as the footwear brand manufactures much of its product in Vietnam, Indonesia and China— all of which are facing steep tariffs.

But Nike is far from alone in their reliance on Asian manufacturing for footwear and apparel, leaving companies with limited ability to shift production to safer tariff havens.

While some of the added costs will be absorbed within the supply chain and through reduced profit margins, analysts predict a significant portion will be passed along to consumers.

Footwear is disproportionately impacted, but apparel and sports equipment aren’t far behind.

Let’s break down the numbers and what they mean for the US youth sports market.

The Market

There are many ways to do this, but let’s start from a base of accepted conservative estimates.

The youth sports goods market in the US includes:

• 👟 footwear (cleats and sneakers)

• 🎽 apparel (uniforms)

• 🏀 equipment

It is purchased by:

• 🧑‍🧑‍🧒‍🧒 families

• 🏫 schools and leagues

Estimates:

• Families spend $30-$40 billion overall on youth sports, according to a Project Play report.

• 15-20% of that spend is on goods, including footwear, apparel and equipment.

• In other words, families spend roughly $5-$7 billion per year on youth sports footwear, apparel and equipment.

• There are 27 million youth athletes in the country.

• This means families spend anywhere from $185 to $260 on youth sports goods per year.

• High schools and youth leagues purchase even more, with 8 million high school sports participants alone.

• Thus, the estimated national annual market for youth sports goods, including organizational spending: $8-$10 billion.

Now, let’s use these estimates to figure out how much more tariffs will cost families, leagues, schools and other youth sports organizations…

Tariffs

Impacts per vertical:

• Virtually all athletic footwear is imported, with much of it coming from Vietnam, China and Indonesia.

• Ditto for most apparel.

• Equipment is a bit more diversified, with some higher end stuff being manufactured in the US, but still 60% of US sporting goods come from China alone, with other countries like Canada and Mexico factoring in.

• Brands will absorb some of the cost in the supply chain and through hits to profit margins (hence the dramatic downturn in their stocks).

• UBS estimates price impacts of 10-12% on goods from Vietnam.

• This may compound for sporting goods, since nearly the entire supply chain is in high-tariff countries, making it harder for brands to shift manufacturing and absorb costs.

So we can make two estimates:

• The weighted average of tariff rates by their share of the market is 38%

• Price increases of 10-20%

That chart looks like this:

These are, of course, blended averages, and consumers will be able to find exceptions on individual items.

Total Impact

Now, it’s just math:

In short:

• Market Size: $8–10 billion per year for youth sports things (footwear, apparel, equipment).

• Tariff Exposure: Approximately 90% of this market is subject to the new tariffs.

• Average Effective Tariff: ~38% on imports (with a resulting average retail price increase of ~10-20%).

• Total Additional Cost: About $800M–$2.0 billion in increased prices over the next 12 months.

Cost Per Family

There are 27 million youth athletes in the US.

Based on earlier estimates of $5-$7 billion in consumer spending on youth sports goods (removing organization spending), the increase in tariffs will have the following impact on families:

In other words:

• $18 to $52 additional costs for each family

• a total additional cost to families of $500M to $1.4 billion

This, of course, all presumes tariffs remain in place for a year. As I write this, Trump says Vietnam has offered to cut its tariffs on the US to zero, which would likely result in diminished reciprocal tariffs (Nike is up 4% on this news). So this remains a very fluid situation. But as it currently stands, the youth sports market is set to be significantly impacted by tariffs.

Citations

1. Aspen Institute – Project Play

   Link: https://www.aspeninstitute.org/programs/project-play/

2. Reuters – U.S. Tariff Announcements Impacting Youth Sports Gear

   Link: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-tariffs-youth-sports-gear-2025-04-10/

3. ESPN – Rising Tariffs Threaten Youth Sports Equipment Prices

4. American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA)

   Link: https://www.aafaglobal.org/

5. Sports & Fitness Industry Association (SFIA)

   Link: https://www.sfia.org/

6. National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS)

   Link: https://www.nfhs.org/

7. WinterGreen Research – Youth Sports Industry Reports

   Link: https://www.wintergreenresearch.com/

8. Yahoo Finance – Impact of New Tariffs on the Youth Sports Market

   Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/impact-new-tariffs-youth-sports-market-2025-04-10/

9. CNBC – Tariffs Drive Up Costs for Youth Sports Equipment

   Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/tariffs-drive-up-costs-youth-sports-equipment.html

10. CBS News – New Tariffs: A Blow to U.S. Youth Sports

    Link: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-tariffs-blow-to-us-youth-sports-2025/

Methodology: I used ChatGPT Deep Research to surface and analyze these articles for base estimates. From there, I ran 3 different simulations to determine the estimated costs and manually pulled, fact-checked, and adjusted the numbers to ensure alignment with generally accepted industry estimates. And then wrote it all in bullet form so it was easy to read.

Good game.