The NFL is all-in on flag football. And that is not going to change.
But even The Shield gets a ding sometimes.
The main event of the Super Bowl Week flag-fest — the AFC vs. NFC Pro Bowl Games showcase — averaged 1.9M viewers.
That would be an incredible rating for cable TV on a Tuesday night 99.9% of the time. But the game is different for the NFL — it was the worst Pro Bowl rating ever and a 60% YoY drop from the 2025 edition.
There are several reasonable explanations.
The Pro Bowl has been bleeding audience and interest for years. It was moved from its usual Sunday before the Super Bowl placement. ABC carried a simulcast broadcast last year. And most of the NFL’s top stars find a way to avoid participating these days — see Sanders, Shedeur.
But at the same time: This could lead the NFL to recalibrate how it is growing and selling flag to the masses as Los Angeles 2028 fast approaches. The sport remains a rocket ship on an astonishing linear trajectory at the youth level, but this was the larger market saying it is not as enamored — yet.
It is tempting to say the rating is irrelevant and there could be 19 people tuning in as long as the league can connect with kids and new fans through clips and highlights on social media.
But having covered the league earlier in my career, I learned long ago the NFL does not do loss leaders. It aims to dominate on all fronts. And it takes in action if not achieving the latter.
The entire flag ecosystem is very much building the plane while flying it — something illustrated in the interview Kyle P. recently did with BreakAway Data CEO Dave Anderson.
This feels like one of those instances. It seems unlikely the NFL will end the Pro Bowl before we get to LA, so I’d look for big changes next year — going back to the Sunday time slot, cajoling more big names to show up, maybe even integrating the U.S. women’s national team into the event.
The eventual decision between 5v5 — which is what they’ll play in the Olympics — and 7v7 — more kids participating AND it looks more like football — also fascinates me.
This is a fleeting dip in the grand scheme, but the NFL can’t rest on its laurels here.
Flag football won’t succeed as a broadcast sport because it’s football. In fact, that thinking has failed many of upstart leagues. It may succeed when it’s part of the Olympics - when was the last time you tuned in to beach volleyball or curling outside of the Olympics? - or if it receives the full weight and might of ESPN-ABC, as it did for the NFL Flag Championships last summer. But I remain skeptical it will ever become mainstream, around-the-clock programming.
But that has little to do with its potential as a youth, high school, or even college sport. To the extent that this isn’t the NFL’s primary motivation already, it should lean into flag primarily as a way to open up an entire gender to football participation (and subsequent fandom), and as a gateway entry point for parents who are concerned about the safety of tackle participation, especially from a young age. Not everything will become prime time viewing… but TV execs will always try!
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