This is Buying Sandlot — the only newsletter that focuses solely on the business of youth sports.
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In the email today:
🎾 Youth Tennis Grows, But Advancement Path Narrows
A few weeks ago we wrote about the surge in youth golf participation.
Youth tennis’ participation boom has been even more pronounced.
The same NGB caveat applies — Project Play used USTA participation data for tennis, not SFIA figures. But the trend lines are clear:
51.2% growth among ages 6-12 from 2019-24
30.9% growth among ages 13-17
27.3M players nationally in 2025 (youth and adults)
~45% of players nationally are U25
That top number is about 4x the growth rate of flag football in the same span — but again, not apples to apples.
What makes the growth even more interesting: The youth participation spike has coincided with a significant downturn in the number of college tennis opportunities. Dozens of programs, men’s and women’s, have been cut since the pandemic and the House settlement.
US Sports Camp’s Nike Tennis Camps sit at that intersection. USSC currently operates hundreds camps each year in partnership with an array of college coaches and top programs, including Arkansas, Cal, Duke, Oklahoma State, Pepperdine, San Diego, Stanford and Oklahoma, where it will offer boys and girls camps for the first time this year.
The goal is twofold — assist coaches in running camps that generate critical revenue for their programs while creating opportunities for youth athletes.
“I’m a firm believer in playing multiple sports, and I think tennis would really benefit from creating more pathways to play multiple sports and encouraging [kids] to play tennis, try tennis,” said USSC President Justin Hoeveler, who played collegiately at Northwestern.
“We have so many great athletes in this country that I think are specializing too early. Tennis could be one of those other sports that they are playing, and I think a team component might help with that. … The challenge is still retention and getting kids to continue to play.”
Tennis has several things going for it as numbers rise. There are limited equipment needs. Facility availability is favorable — there are an estimated 270K courts nationwide.
The USTA has also focused on coaching development along with other initiatives and tech innovations like Fast Track Tennis have also reduced friction. It is also considered a “life” sport like golf that can be enjoyed as you age.
And then there’s the long-term health impacts: A 2018 observational study found that individuals who played tennis had a predicted life expectancy gain of 9.7 years— potentially because of the social benefits involved in addition to the physical benefits.
“How does that translate to college tennis and programs? I think we’re still kind of figuring out that pathway a little bit,” Hoeveler said.
One optimistic viewpoint: Participation growth and retention could eventually buttress the college (and professional) game.
Over 60% of D1 men’s and women’s players are international athletes — often among the motivating factors when schools eliminate the sport. Tennis has also struggled with a 23-year drought since the last American man won a major tournament singles title (Andy Roddick at the 2003 U.S. Open).
But more kids playing/greater retention could lead to more college roster spots saved/created and increased exposure for the game at its highest level.
“I think the hope for everybody is to get a little bit more balance across the rosters with American players,” Hoeveler said. “The level of the game right now in college tennis is incredibly high. We want to see more American players at that level.”
💸 An Investment Thought Exercise
Chamath Palihapitiya wrote a long article on X today about how AI could completely disrupt terminal value and make most business moats temporary.
In short, the thesis goes like this: If businesses - and especially growth businesses - face an increased risk of extinction due to AI, valuations may shift from what a company could theoretically return in 5-10 years to a multiple on current free cash flows.
“Venture capital, in its current form, effectively ceases to function. Who funds a pre-revenue company at a $1 billion valuation if there is no terminal value to grow into? The IPO market, built on stories about what a company will become, collapses into a smaller arena for businesses that already generate serious cash. The entire venture capital/growth equity complex - one of the defining financial innovations of the last forty years - would instantly become a historical artifact."
All of this said, it is not true that money would simply disappear. It would relocate. Capital would flood toward assets where cash flows are insulated from AI disruption: energy infrastructure, farmland, toll roads, water rights, commodity producers, short-duration sovereign bonds. Things you can touch. Things with inelastic demand and physical defensibility. Things that a better large language model cannot unbundle overnight.”
So how does that apply to youth sports?
Well, huge swaths of the industry basically fall on either side of this argument:
The Participation Layer: Falls squarely in the assets-with-predictable-cash-flows area. Facilities, registration, travel, equipment (see the section about Dick’s), dues, uniforms, compliance, insurance, safety, and more. All of these things get rewarded in a world where AI disrupts everything and capital shifts to short-term, predictable cash flows. It’s the bull case for the industry.
The Tech Layer: Many of the scaled companies in youth sports today are, effectively, SaaS businesses— exactly the sort of companies at risk if this scenario were to play out, since AI very easily disrupts deterministic software. But there is some nuance in youth sports, given its highly-fragmented and social nature: The switching costs are painful, and the incentives to do so are different for youth sports operators than large enterprises. And ultimately, tech supports the participation layer, which makes it relatively safer than larger-scale tech investment.
The Physical Infrastructure Layer: Chamath also writes about the need for public investment in a world where private capital cannot finance long-duration projects. He’s talking about sovereign wealth funds, but the theory applies to the public-private partnerships we already see at-scale in large youth sports tournament facilities.
I’ve been saying for a while that the unsexy infrastructure plays - club rollups, tournament venue consolidation, and platforms that consist of facilities, clubs, and tech - are sturdier, from an investment standpoint, than the really novel or exciting AI products and features.
I think this is why we’re seeing tech companies lean into the media (ie streaming) aspects of their platforms, as attention can be harder to disrupt than a feature. It’s also why tech as part of a broader ecosystem feels even safer— a la GameChanger and Dick’s.
Going back to Chamath: If this scenario were to play out, in youth sports the market will pay a premium for the participation layer, tolerate the tech layer, and continue to require public subsidy for the physical infrastructure layer.
Bonus points if public money begins to subsidize the participation layer, too.
🏟️ Buying Sandlot Summit Tickets Going Fast
Join more than 220 attendees at the Buying Sandlot Summit in Philly next month.
The full agenda will be announced on Wednesday, along with our next wave of speakers.
VIP tickets sold out over the weekend, and prices on regular attendee tickets will increase at the end of the month.
🏆 WSJ: Dick’s Is Youth Sports Business Champion
I (James) joked on Friday’s podcast that if Buying Sandlot is ESPN First Take, then Dick’s Sporting Goods/GameChanger are becoming our Cowboys and Lakers.
Along those lines … Wall Street Journal columnist Ben Cohen declared Dick’s “the biggest winner in youth sports” over the weekend.
As it turns out, youth sports have been very good to Dick’s. Over the past decade, the company’s revenue has roughly doubled. Last year, it generated a record $14.1 billion in sales. Instead of shopping online or schlepping kids to multiple stores, parents just stop by Dick’s for everything they need. ... At this point, it is almost impossible to play baseball without buying from Dick’s.
The column breaks no new ground and is far from encyclopedic — GameChanger only gets a brief mention and the Unrivaled Sports investment was not noted.
But it is another 30K-foot view on the industry from a prestige media outlet that reinforces the industry’s arrival.
And, like clockwork, the derivative coverage has followed.
The WSJ’s reporting was regurgitated without citation in reporter Jane King’s syndicated TV report this morning. It was also the source material for the Morning Brew newsletter’s lead section today.
🤫 England’s Youth Soccer Sidelines Go ‘Silent’
The FA just had its Silent Support Weekend, where spectators at youth soccer games are instructed to only applaud good play and otherwise stay quiet "to help young players find their voice on the pitch, make their own decisions and enjoy their game."
The Athletic had several reporters attend games and offer their thoughts; the FA said 210 leagues nationwide opted into the initiative covering over 76K teams and over 1M players (and millions more parents, grandparents, etc.).
I love this idea, but I am skeptical it could work in the U.S. aside from the local level.
We’ve written this before, but the physical size of England and other European nations allows them to have cohesion and organization with youth sports that just is not possible here — especially in soccer.
No American NGB is going to be able to pull something like this off. And let’s be honest with ourselves — if one tried, there would be a bunch of jokers lining up to file lawsuits on free speech grounds.
Giphy
⚽️ Japanese Company Wants Kids To Stop Passing
“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take” — Wayne Gretzky Michael Scott Leifras
The Japanese youth sports engagement and organization company has launched Six Shoot — a new soccer competition platform that emphasizes scoring and shots on goal without fear of failure.
Partly due to Japan's strong culture that values harmony, Japanese players tend to choose a "100% success rate back pass" over a "50% success rate shot" in critical moments. However, to compete at the highest levels and realize the goal of winning the World Cup, players must develop the confidence and technical ability to seize even the smallest opportunities in front of goal.
Leifras has launched social media channels for the competitions and plans to hold age group tournaments across Japan.
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